Night net null Le'Veon Bell’s inevitable decision became official Tuesday when the 26-year-old running back chose not to report to the Steelers and sign his franchise tender before the deadline. He will sit out the entire 2018 season in hopes of hitting free agency in 2019.In deciding not to play this season, Bell ultimately is mitigating three risks: the chance of injury, the chance of ineffectiveness and the chance of overuse. Here we examine those three risks to determine whether Bell made the right decision from a financial standpoint.MORE: Bell claimed he loved Steelers but had funny way of showing it Risk of injuryRunning backs are close to the top of the Night net in injury rates. Last year, about 25 percent of running backs landed on either injured reserve or the physically unable to perform list. Eighteen percent are on reserve after 10 weeks this year.Of course, there are varying degrees of injury. Many do not require a long recovery time and do not hamper a contract negotiation. For example, David Johnson missed almost all of last season yet signed a contract extension in September worth $13 million per year. Roughly half of RB injuries turn out this way.The other half are the injuries that require sustained recovery time. We can split those injuries as a 5 percent chance for catastrophic and an 8 percent chance for impactful. (And it should be noted that Bell already has an injury history.)Risk of ineffectivenessNight net players often fall off a cliff without anybody seeing it coming; a star one day is just a guy the next. Last year, Bell saw his yards per ca

rry average drop from 4.9 to 4.0 and his receiving yards per completion from from 8.2 to 7.7. While these metrics are not necessarily great indicators of talent, they both were the second worst of Bell’s five-year career and below his career averages.Right now, though, the lasting memory for Night net teams is that Bell is a 1,200-yard back who can catch 80 passes a year and move the football. That’s locked in.Johnson’s numbers this year have dropped significantly. Had he not accepted his extension at the beginning of the season, odds are he would not have gotten close to that money if his numbers don't improve. There are other factors in Johnson’s situation that would not apply to Bell, but such a decline can be more concerning than an injury.Looking back at "star" 1,000-yard rushers between the ages of 26 and 27, it's about a 50-50 proposition that they will hit 1,000 yards in both years. So for the sake of argument, the fear of Bell being less effective is about 50 percent, with 35 percent of the decline having a small impact and the other 15 percent having a major one.Risk of overuseThe Steelers utilize a one-back system, and Bell has been that player for most of his career. With that said, there has been little correlation between high usage and contract values.Some will point to DeMarco Murray as a comparison for Bell, but Murray's free agency was negatively impacted by the feeling that he was interchangeable with any other Dallas player. Murray also was 27.Age seems to be more of a factor, and taking a year off from the Night net to rest his body does not change the fact that Bell is still a year older.Putting it all togetherBased on what Bell's camp has leaked out, he is looking for a contract equivalent to that of a star wide receiver. We can use that as a baseline to estimate what Bell needs to earn in order to make up for the $14.544 million he lost in 2018.Star receivers earn somewhere in the ballpark of $53 million over a three-year period. And while it’s not all guaranteed, for the sake of argument, we can assume all of it will be earned.Below is a chart that illustrates how the above scenarios could have affected the expected value of Bell’s next contract. The 2019-21 earnings reflect the deal Bell seems to be seeking, and the total earnings are those figures plus the value of the franchise tag he refused.The total expected value (total earnings multiplied by the probability of each scenario) of $57 million is what should be considered when evaluating all scenarios. (Jason Fitzgerald) Under this scenario analysis, Bell would need to earn roughly $4 million more than his expectation from 2019-21 in order to make up what was the expected outcome with the possibilities of injury, ineffectiveness and overuse.With a potential $53 million payoff in his next contract, one could argue sitting out 2018 and bypassing those scenarios was the safest play for Bell, even though the likeliest of outcomes would have netted him more money.The real worldOf course, all of the above is based on the idea that Bell will actually earn a contract that runs on pace with those of the top-paid receivers. Such a deal would represent a 13 percent increase over that of running back Todd Gurley, a younger and arguably more effective player.Bell remains a test case. A running back has not cashed in via free agency in quite some time. Teams are wary of their ages, and they don’t want to pay big bucks to players who might either end up on the sideline or play a step slower with nagging injuries.MORE LE'VEON BELL:Best free-agency fits for star running backMore than a few teams will have enough cap space to discount those concerns and make a move for Bell, but he probably won't get the kind of guarantee ($45 million) Gurley received. Bell is more likely to get something in the $30 million range, which would cover the first two years of the contract.And because teams will have no emotional attachment to Bell, he will have to play very well to earn any more than that. He might hit some big third- and fourth-year numbers to inflate the overall contract value, but nothing would be a lock.The likely outcome for Bell is closer to a four-year deal worth $53 million with $31 million in guarantees. It would include high-end incentives that could increase the value of the deal to $60 million.If the above scenarios were to be adjusted to reflect more realistic outcomes, Bell would assume much more risk, because he would be losing more money for a smaller outcome.

作者 sh1